How Firms Making Clothes, Cars and Computers Would Respond to an All-out Trade War

LLamasoft, a supply-chain analytics firm, looked at representative American MNCs in clothing, cars and electronics to assess the impact of America’s threatened imposition of a 25% tariff on all Chinese imports. It assumed firms would move sourcing and manufacturing out of China only as much as economic logic dictates. The analysis recognised the costs of moving production and the benefits of reduced inventories, cheaper logistics and shorter cycle times for inventory from positioning supplies closer to consumers.

The clothing industry would see total costs jump by 11% after such tariffs. Sourcing costs would rise by 23% and manufacturing costs by 43%, but nearshoring would improve average cycle times from 19 to 14 days. Overall costs in the car industry would increase by less than 4%, but that would mask powerful counter-currents from the shift to regional hubs. Manufacturing costs would shoot up by 21%, but sourcing costs would drop by 25%. With cycle times falling from 127 days to 95, inventory and logistics costs would be cut.

The electronics sector, which has strong roots in China, would see an increase in total costs of only 2%. Because making such kit outside the mainland is much pricier, even the modest amount of nearshoring assumed sends manufacturing costs shooting up by 28%. However, the reduction in cycle times from 35 days to 28 days would cut logistics costs and inventory costs dramatically..考生如果怕自己錯過考試報名時間和考試時間的話，可以 免費預約短信提醒，屆時會以短信的方式提醒大家報名和考試時間。

制造服裝、汽車和電腦的公司會如何應對全面貿易戰(zhàn)

供應鏈分析公司LLamasoft研究了美國的服裝、汽車和電子行業(yè)中具代表性的跨國公司，以評估美國威脅要對所有中國進口產品征收25%關稅的影響。它假設企業(yè)會完全按照經濟邏輯將一部分采購和制造從中國轉移出去。該分析考慮到了轉移生產的成本，以及讓供應更接近消費者所帶來的庫存減少、物流成本降低和庫存周期短的好處。

加征這樣的關稅后，服裝行業(yè)的總成本將增加11%。采購成本將增加23%，制造成本增加43%，但近岸采購可將平均周期時間從19天減少到14天。汽車行業(yè)的總體成本將增加不到4%，但這將掩蓋向區(qū)域中心轉移帶來的強大逆流。制造成本將增加21%，但采購成本將下降25%。隨著周期時間從127天下降到95天，庫存和物流成本將被削減。

牢固扎根于中國的電子行業(yè)的總成本僅將增長2%。因為在中國大陸之外制造這樣的設備要貴得多，即使只假設適度的近岸采購，也會使制造成本上升28%。然而，將周期時間從35天減少到28天會大大降低物流和庫存的成本。

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